A recent post led me to do the math... how much BTC is lost forever when someone dies without leaving behind instructions for recovery? Purely guessing at unknown numbers, here's my guess:
There is around 10 million BTC in self-custody
What percent of those die annually? Maybe 3 out of 1,000? 0.3%?
Out of those, how much is lost? One would assume that the more BTC held by an individual, the likelier it is to be recoverable. Those with a few sats here and there and far less likely to leave clear instructions than someone holding 1 or more BTC...
Purely with the numbers above, 10M x 0.003 / 365 = 82 BTC dies every day
It's a wild guess with respect to the recovery-failure rate... at 5%, it's around 4 BTC. At 75%, it's 62 BTC.
My wild guess will split the difference... 33 BTC flies into the eternal ether every day.
Is that close? I welcome comments with respect to my assumptions.
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