Will 2026 be a red year?

2014, 2018, 2022 were all red years, coming 2 years after the halving. They represented the furthest point away from the halving.

If I had to guess, in prior red years, traders sold thinking that the squeeze effect from the halving had ran it's course. Enough selling drove the price down, despite increase in hash rate.

ETFs have given traders much easier access to Bitcoin. Dips are easier to buy. Sketchy exchanges, which hurt price action badly in 2022, are less likely to recur with regulations coming in place since.

Bitcoin is seen as a long term investment by more and more people, who might elect to hold rather than sell.

What do you think happens in 2026?

1. Large increase in BTC price

2. Small increase in BTC price

3. Essentially no change in BTC price

4. Small decrease in BTC price

5. Large decrease in BTC price

Temptation exists to try to play the downswing again (sell high, buy more low), but I don't have any certainty that it will decrease by the significant amount it did in the last downswings.

I'm HODLing for now. Is the best play to just accumulate next year?