The Financial Spiral Test | November 6, 2026 | Sovereign Stress Decelera...

Is Bitcoin behaving more like a leveraged risk asset than a safe haven? An AI-generated financial stress test

I've just published the first episode of The Financial Spiral Test, a weekly AI-generated examination of global financial stability.

The November 6 assessment reached an interesting conclusion: stress in U.S. sovereign-debt markets appears to be decelerating, while stress in Bitcoin and other risk-sensitive assets is increasing.

Some observations from this week's report:

• U.S. 10-year Treasury yields declined 14 basis points to 4.84%.
• Bitcoin declined approximately 2.4% over the reporting week.
• U.S. spot-Bitcoin ETFs experienced approximately $1.51 billion in net outflows over five sessions.
• Reported Bitcoin trading turnover increased during the selloff.
• The evidence does not yet establish a reliable predictive relationship between Treasury yields and Bitcoin prices.

The hypothesis we're investigating is whether disturbances in Treasury markets affect Bitcoin indirectly through funding conditions, collateral requirements and leveraged positions.

The report is produced using AI, including its analysis, narration and graphics. I'm not changing its conclusions to fit a particular market narrative.

I'm inviting public peer review. If you disagree with the figures, calculations or interpretation, I'd particularly welcome evidence and alternative explanations.

Source references are in the video description.

I'll be repeating the analysis every Friday, regardless of whether the evidence points toward increasing or decreasing financial stress.